春日

在以军大规模集结，准备对拉法发起地面进攻之际，以色列内讧开始公开化，防长加兰特直接跟总理内塔尼亚胡吵起来了。

B |

据观察者网报道，15日，加兰特高调召开新闻发布会，公开质疑内塔尼亚胡的加沙战后计划，反对以色列战后军事“控制”加沙，希望建立一个非敌对的巴勒斯坦人政府的替代方案，以取代哈马斯。         Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi attended the party leaders debate held at the House of Representatives in the Diet,. Tokyo Japan on July 15, 2026.
Due to concerns about fueling tension with China and South Korea, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering refraining from visiting the notorious Yasukuni Shrine, a symbol of Japanese militarism and wartime aggression, to mark the anniversary of Japan's unconditional surrender in World War II (WWII) on Saturday, Japanese media outlet Kyodo quoted sources familiar with the matter as saying on Wednesday. 
Chinese experts said even if Takaichi forgoes a visit to the notorious shrine, the potential decision is merely driven by political calculations and diplomatic maneuvering, and could not be interpreted as a shift in her right-wing stance or as a sign of remorse over Japan's wartime aggression.
Such a visit to the shrine by Takaichi, a conservative known for her hawkish foreign policies, would certainly fuel tensions with China and create a rift in relations with South Korea, two countries that suffered under Japan's wartime military atrocities, Kyodo News reported.
Takaichi regularly visited the shrine before, even while serving as a Cabinet minister. But she has not visited the shrine since becoming leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and prime minister in October, according to Kyodo news. 
Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said at a press conference on August 7, when asked about a possible visit by Takaichi to the shrine around the anniversary, that "it is a matter for the prime minister to decide appropriately on her own," according to Japan's Jiji Press. 
A source close to Takaichi told the Jiji that, "I don't think the prime minister will visit Yasukuni Shrine. It would complicate relations with South Korea."
Japan's Asahi TV reported that Takaichi may forgo the visit because she believes it is necessary to avoid triggering diplomatic tensions with South Korea, as well as with China.
A visit to the notorious shrine by a sitting Japanese prime minister would be a serious political incident, as it would reflect the leader's attitude toward Japan's wartime aggression and broader historical issues. Even if Takaichi chooses not to visit the shrine, it would not signal a retreat from her right-wing stance or a change in her views of Japan's wartime aggression against other countries, Lü Chao, an expert on Korean Peninsula issues at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times. Rather, he said, the decision would largely reflect political calculations and diplomatic maneuvering. 
Lü added that Takaichi could still make other symbolic gestures on the anniversary to cater to Japan's right-wing forces, whose support helped propel her to power. Such a move, he said, would underscore that her views of Japan's wartime history remain unchanged and serve as a reminder to neighboring Asian countries to remain vigilant about Japan's political direction.
Reporting on Takaichi's possible decision to forgo a visit to the shrine, South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo said on Wednesday that Takaichi had regularly visited the Yasukuni Shrine. "In the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election held in October last year, Takaichi also said that if appointed prime minister, she would visit the Yasukuni Shrine, noting that such visits should not become a diplomatic issue." However, since then, Takaichi has not visited in person and has only dedicated offerings in a private capacity, per the report. 
In April, after Takaichi sent a ritual offering to the notorious Yasukuni Shrine, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said that China firmly opposes and strongly condemns Japan's latest negative moves related to Yasukuni Shrine and has lodged strong representations and protests with the Japanese side.
The Yasukuni Shrine is a spiritual tool and symbol of Japanese militarists responsible for the war of aggression. It is in fact a shrine for war criminals, noted Guo.
No sitting prime minister has gone to Yasukuni since Japan's late leader Shinzo Abe did so in 2013, drawing strong criticism from neighboring Asian countries. 
Beyond Takaichi herself, some Japanese politicians and lawmakers have kept visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, triggering fierce pushback from peace advocates in Japan and the international community, Liu Jiangyong, a professor at the Institute of International Studies of Tsinghua University, told the Global Times, noting that such visits not only reflect the long-standing right-wing stance of Takaichi and other conservative politicians on historical issues, but also lay bare Japan's enduring militarist remnants.
Also in April, members of the conservative solidarity association, a group of conservatives in Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, and 166 Sanseito lawmakers from the Diet and local assemblies visited the Yasukuni war shrine. 
In response, Lin Jian, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said that China strongly deplores and condemns such acts. 
"By visiting the Yasukuni war shrine that honors Japanese Class-A war criminals year after year, these Japanese politicians seek to reverse the just verdict on Japanese aggression, and hereby whitewash Japan's war crimes and revive militarism. The Chinese people and people elsewhere who suffered under Japanese aggression will never accept that, neither will anyone in the world who stand for peace. As Japanese neo-militarism keeps gaining strength, the international community must stay on high alert and stand ready to stamp it out before it could wreak havoc in the region," said Lin.
。对此，内塔尼亚胡强硬回应，不会考虑加兰特的方案，称这位退役海军上将，是在为自己无能“借口”。防长和总理“开火”后，以色列政坛已进入“选边站队”状态，似乎忘记了要进攻拉法。对此，我们聊三个话题。

作为总理，内塔尼亚胡曾长期执政以色列，拿美国总统来作比，奥巴马时期时是他，特朗普时期时也是他，如今到了拜登时期，仍是他。

C | 在以色列政坛，内塔尼亚胡是绝对的“老资格”，只不过，这一次上台，他的执政地位不再像此前那样稳固，即便在本届政府内部，对他感到不满的人也有不少，比如防长加兰特。

实际上，早在去年的“司法改革风波”中，两人就已经“对抗”过一次。当时，加兰特跟这次一样，也是通过电视讲话发出“重磅警告”，称内塔尼亚胡推行的司法改革，正在威胁以色列军队的凝聚力。

D | 之后，盛怒之下的内塔尼亚胡下令，解除加兰特的防长职务。但是，以色列国内随后爆发大型示威游行，司法改革成为众矢之的，在这样的背景下，加兰特撤职的事内塔尼亚胡没有重提。

但没想到，仅仅不到一年的时间，两人再次爆发激烈争吵。这一次，争吵的话题是“加沙战后到底由谁来管理”。

E | 值得关注的是，在以色列战时内阁“三人小组”中，除内塔尼亚胡和加兰特之外，另外一个拥有表决权的前防长甘茨也认为，加兰特“说了实话”。

这也表明，在这个“三人小组”中，总理内塔尼亚胡已经被另外两人孤立了，因为另两人都是军方的，军方对内塔尼亚胡的不满，已经达到了顶点。与此同时，以军总参谋长哈莱维也指责内塔尼亚胡，未能制定加沙地带战后管理方案，导致以军不知为何而战。以色列国家安全总局（辛贝特）负责人巴尔，也曾与内塔尼亚胡发生过争执。

但是，在“三人小组”之外，内塔尼亚胡却并不孤单，一些右翼议员则支持他，希望他立即解除加兰特的职务。也就是说，以色列内部如今已分为两派，开始选边站队了，内讧已摆到了桌面上。

以色列媒体披露，内塔尼亚胡目前的考虑是，将哈马斯甚至加沙民众全部赶走，以色列占领加沙后，迁入自己许可的新移民，然后成立一个亲以色列的政权，来替以色列“打理”加沙，一方面让自己永远没有安全担忧；另一方面，又为以色列增加了“领土”。如果能获得这样的战争红利，内塔尼亚胡争取连任，将基本上没有什么阻力。

如今，以色列坚持打加沙最后一个城市拉法，就暗含“将难民赶到埃及”的意思，因为拉法与埃及西奈半岛不过“一墙之隔”，战火一起，不用以色列驱赶，难民自己就逃到埃及那边去了。

为达到占领目的，此前以色列方面还对外披露过两个方案，一个是在地中海建人工岛，将加沙民众迁移上去；另一个，是将加沙民众整体迁移到非洲国家刚果（金），以色列甚至与该国已经进行过协商。

但是，对于内塔尼亚胡这一计划，哈马斯方面坚决不同意，称只要哈马斯还有一个人活着，就不会任由以色列统治加沙地带，在这样的背景下，内塔尼亚胡坚持继续开火。但他也知道，完全消灭哈马斯是不可能的，比如土耳其总统埃尔多安最近就明确表示，土耳其收治了1000多名哈马斯，为他们疗伤，摆明了是跟以色列唱反调，而在中东，类似土耳其这种做法的国家，还有不少。

所以，如果占领加沙，只能以色列军队出面控制，以保证在安全上不出问题，这也是内塔尼亚胡希望做到的，但军方基本上都不同意，他们认为内塔尼亚胡这样的想法，是在为他个人谋利，为他连任争取选票，因为以军在加沙跟哈马斯拼命，成了给内塔尼亚胡争取政绩。

冲突总有停火的那一天，那么，对于加沙的战后治理，国际社会都是怎么考虑的？最近，联大以143：9的压倒性优势，通过了“巴勒斯坦入联”决议，也就是说，国际社会希望巴勒斯坦加入联合国，在建立一个属于巴勒斯坦人的国家后，真正实施“两国方案”。

但是，虽然决议通过，美国和以色列却投了反对票，这也表明，在巴勒斯坦建国一事上，美以有另外的考虑。

以色列常驻联合国代表埃尔丹已明确表态，称以方不会同意巴勒斯坦建国，这是“在奖励恐怖主义”，哈马斯来管理不行，法塔赫也不行。美国拜登政府则在内部会谈中呼吁阿拉伯国家，在本轮巴以冲突结束后，向加沙地带部署维和部队，埃及、阿联酋和摩洛哥正在考虑这一建议。

F |

对此，以色列方面恐怕不会配合，阿拉伯联军有能力抗衡以色列吗？这个真不好说。那么，如今以色列坚持在加沙不停火怎么办？哥伦比亚总统提议，由联合国派出维和部队，强硬阻止以色列的军事行动。

G | 但一来，美国不会同意；二来，若以色列坚持行动，加沙岂不是越来越乱？