胡雪岩

US Claims Talks With India to Cap Russian Oil Price 'Encouraging', But Delhi Yet to Agree to Idea_我的网站

绿光森林

一 | 伊朗当地时间8月22日，也正是伊朗的“国防工业日”，伊朗就这样突然地对着全世界放了一个“大招”：伊朗媒体首次公开地下军工生产线画面。从画面中可以看到，伊朗的这个军工基地可不是仓促建造，各种基础设施一应俱全，宛如一个堡垒，在这样的地下区域建造这样规模的基地，可不是短短几年就可以做到的。 US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has described her talks with her Indian counterpart to cap the price of Russian crude oil as “encouraging”, as per an interview given to Reuters after the conclusion of the G20 Finance Ministers’ and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting in Bali.,“We’ll see where they come out. The conversations I’ve had have generally been encouraging," Yellen told the news agency while en route to Seoul from Bali on Monday.,A US Treasury official conceded that New Delhi was yet to agree to the idea of capping the price of Russian oil. The official claimed that India, at the same time, hadn’t “expressed hostility to this idea.”,The American official added that no meeting had taken place between Yellen and her Indian counterpart at the G20 meeting.,New Delhi was represented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das at the G20 meeting, according to an official statement.,A statement by the US Treasury has said that Yellen did, however, hold meetings with her counterparts from Australia, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey on the sidelines of the G20 meeting.,During her meetings, Yellen sought “cooperation” from other governments in a US-led push to cap the price of Russian crude in order to “restrict” Moscow’s energy revenues, as per the statement.,A plan to cap prices of Russian crude oil in the global market was first formally discussed last month at the G7 Summit in Germany, where Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was also invited to participate.,According to several reports, the US, European Union (EU) and other Western allies are seeking to limit the price of Russian crude to between $40 and $60 per barrel by banning insurance and transportation services to ship Russian crude unless it is purchased at a capped price.,The West-led push to cap Russian oil prices comes as Russian energy revenues remain almost unaffected in spite of six rounds of coordinated sanctions against Moscow by the Western allies over its special military operation in Ukraine.,New Delhi, for its part, has consistently justified its decision to purchase enhanced volumes of Russian crude in the interest of its "energy security".,The Western efforts to phase out Russian oil from international energy markets has contributed to oil prices hitting their highest level since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008.,Data from India’s Commerce Ministry this month has shown that New Delhi’s import of Russian crude has surged by 620 percent in April-May quarter as compared to the January-March period, marking an all-time high.,India’s coal imports from Moscow also surged by 266 percent in the April-May period as compared to the preceding three months.,As far as China is concerned, Russia replaced Saudi Arabia as Beijing’s top crude supplier last month.,Russia’s energy exports have not been included in the Western sanctions, largely due to the EU’s reliance on them.,Japan and the EU, both major importers of Russian oil, coal and natural gas, have agreed to phase energy imports from Moscow out of their energy mix by the end of this year.。但最关键的还是后面放出的信息，第一点就是这样规模的地下军工生产线，伊朗还有数十条，第二点则是这里不仅可以生产导弹和无人机等装备，其产量等各方面也有很大提升。

二 | 这分明就是直接给美国看的，正所谓逢敌必亮剑，伊朗正在赤裸裸地告诉美国，这就是我目前的军工实力，如果还不停火，后果自己看着办。 2026年的美伊冲突，让我们看到了伊朗最硬气的一面，也让美国这个庞然大物以主动停火的方式阶段性地结束了战争。而作为局外人，我们看到了太多伊朗的强大，尤其是在军工方面，可以说看到了伊朗的高瞻远瞩，甚至看到了我国抗战时期的缩影。

三 | 《地道战》是我国一部经典的、高度还原历史真相的电影，而伊朗在常年面对美国威胁的情况下，也做出了相似的行为。以2025年美国午夜之锤的行动为例，美国派出了超过125架飞机，使用了包括巨型钻地炸弹在内的先进武器，只为了袭击伊朗的三处核设施。这次行动，美国拥有伊朗三处核设施的精确坐标，准备十分充足，可最后的结果却没有那么完美，因为其中两处核设施在山体中，并没有遭到致命性破坏。不过这只是伊朗建造的冰山一角，这次伊朗首次公开地下军工生产线，完美解释了美伊冲突期间，伊朗为何能够长时间使用大量优质装备。那么这时肯定有人会问了，伊朗为何要公布呢？继续扮猪吃老虎不好吗？这就要说到孙子兵法中的一句话：“不战而屈人之兵，善之善者也”。

四 | 这次伊朗敢于公布地下军工生产线画面，一方面是对自己的军工生产实力有了足够的自信，说明伊朗几乎不害怕接下来的任何攻击行为。但不害怕不代表伊朗想要继续战斗，即使伊朗现在的军工实力很强大，可国家的发展也陷入了很大程度的停滞，毕竟战争是爆发在伊朗本土的。所以伊朗这次公开展示，其实是在告诉美国，我现在有足够的实力和你继续战斗，但我想告诉你，继续打下去对你对我都不好，停战是目前最好的选择。

五 | 我们可以理解为伊朗对美国进行了武力威慑，让美国继续考虑是否要持续攻击伊朗。那么美国会咽下这口气吗？从经济角度来看的话，美国大概率是会选择停战的，因为这次美伊冲突美国没有占到便宜不说，消耗的金钱也是非常庞大的数字。如果继续打下去，美国的经济说不定会被拖垮，因为作战区域远离美国本土，美国所耗费的运输等费用也会不断上升，即使强如美国，也要掂量一下自己的损失。最关键的是，到了那个时候，其他国家是不会对美国客气的，美国常年树立的霸主地位也会受到很大的冲击。

六 | 除此之外，伊朗目前的反抗情绪一定会空前高涨，因为伊朗民众看到了更大的希望。伊朗这次选择公布“底牌”，让那些对国防发展信心不足的民众，狠狠吃了一颗定心丸，他们对伊朗的未来充满了信心。而对于前线作战的士兵，在看到如此强大的装备实力后，也不会再畏惧和美军继续作战，要知道在无人机等装备的优势下，伊朗军队和美军的差距可以说被无限制缩小。再简单一点说，在不启用核武器的情况下，伊朗完全有能力和美国进行持久作战，还能够进行长期对等反制，这还是在美国长期封锁的情况下完成。